Validating the Super-Optimum Solution

Peter A. Zuckerman

      The idea of resolving peacefully the many problems of the Arab world has much emotional appeal. In the past, the mindset of Arab culture tended to resist solutions based on mutual cooperation and the full acceptance of the Christian and Jewish minorities -- dhimmis -- as equals. In the aftermath of the enormous losses suffered -- in human lives, physiical destruction, uprooting of populations -- the Arab political system needs to be infused with new ideas, based on a realistic view of the Middle East and the rest of the world. Ultimately, a change of the Arab mindset toward full cooperation and acceptance of minorities will achieve the revival of the Arab world.

      The Confederation of Israel-Palestine-Jordan is an attempt to reach a feasible super-optimum solution, where most parties of a dispute come out ahead of their best expectations. To prove the validity of the proposed solution, it is necessary to compare it to the other likely alternatives, in a standard and quantifiable way. Such a comparative model should list the major objectives to be achieved, the most likely political alternatives, and probability measurements of achieving the major objectives under each alternative system. Following this approach, the peace confederation option -- the Confederation of Israel-Palestine-Jordan -- gains by far the highest total value, because it would resolve most of the problems that hinder the progress of the Arab world.

      The following table is provided in order to help you evaluate the advantages of the proposed solution to the Middle East problem. The table is constructed as follows:

      A. The various political and security systems that are emerging after the Gulf Crisis are listed. These include the following possibilities:

• The existing political system would continue, with its built-in instabilities, ready for the next explosion of enmities and grievances.
• The peace confederation would combine economic and social development with the gradual stabilizing of existing governments by citizen participation. Cooperation among the participating countries would eliminate the persisting wasteful rivalries and violence.

      B. The eleven goals represent the most significant objectives of the inhabitants of the region, and of the other countries that have economic and political relations with the Arab world:

      Domestic tranquility is essential to the resolution of differences and the development of the economies and societies of the various countries.

      Peaceful external relations are needed for economic development and the reduction of military expenditures.

      Preventing outside domination is to ensure that the development of the region will benefit its inhabitants instead of outsiders.

      Reduction of military expenditures will provide the funds for economic development.

      Increasing religious observance is needed to counteract trends toward excessive materialism that may result from prosperity.

      Increasing economic development is crucial to satisfying the unmet human needs of much of the Arab world.

      Increasing social development is needed for gaining political stability and the elevation of the status of women.

      Developing water resources is essential to satisfy the need for a growing population and the industrialization of the region.

      Reliable oil supplies will provide much of the resources needed for economic development. Further benefits will be obtained through participation in a growing world economy fueled by the petroleum energy source.

      Assistance to the developing world will be secured through continuing growth of the world economy made possible by reversing the arms race.

      Reducing terrorism is required to eliminate the negative image caused by this counter-productive activity.

      The table organizes the policy options and goals. You assign each goal a percentage weight factor based on the perceived importance of the goal. The total sum of the weight factors should not exceed 100.

      You should also assign a subjective value to each combination of policy option and goal. For the sake of simplicity only the values of 1 to 4 can be assigned, with 4 being the best value for the goal, and 1 the worst, with 2 and 3 in between. For example, the rivalries of the existing political system give a low value of 1 to the reduction of military expenditures. In contrast, the peace confederation option would eliminate the rivalries, and yields a high value of 4 in the reduction of military expenditures.

      To perform the calculation of the assigned values, simply click the 'calculate' button. Each weight factor will be multiplied by the appropriate value, and the results will be summarized in the bottom line, to yield a total measurement for the policy option.

      Using the methodology, the higher the summarized measurement, the better the policy option. If the peace confederation option gains the highest total result, it means that it achieves most of the objectives of the people living in the region.