Validating the Super-Optimum Solution
Peter A. Zuckerman
The idea of resolving peacefully the many problems of the Arab
world has much emotional appeal. In the past, the mindset of Arab
culture tended to resist solutions based on mutual cooperation and
the full acceptance of the Christian and Jewish minorities --
dhimmis -- as equals. In the aftermath of the enormous
losses suffered -- in human lives, physiical destruction, uprooting of
populations -- the Arab political system needs to be infused with new
ideas, based on a realistic view of the Middle East and the rest of
the world. Ultimately, a change of the Arab mindset toward full
cooperation and acceptance of minorities will achieve the revival of
the Arab world.
The Confederation of Israel-Palestine-Jordan is an attempt to
reach a feasible super-optimum solution, where most parties of a
dispute come out ahead of their best expectations. To prove the
validity of the proposed solution, it is necessary to compare it to
the other likely alternatives, in a standard and quantifiable way.
Such a comparative model should list the major objectives to be
achieved, the most likely political alternatives, and probability
measurements of achieving the major objectives under each alternative
system. Following this approach, the peace confederation
option -- the Confederation of Israel-Palestine-Jordan -- gains by far the highest
total value, because it would resolve most of the problems that
hinder the progress of the Arab world.
The following table is provided in order to help you evaluate the
advantages of the proposed solution to the Middle East problem.
The table is constructed as follows:
A. The various political and security systems
that are emerging after the Gulf Crisis are listed. These include the
following possibilities:
- The existing political system would continue,
with its built-in instabilities, ready for the next explosion of
enmities and grievances.
- The peace confederation would combine economic
and social development with the gradual stabilizing of existing
governments by citizen participation. Cooperation among the
participating countries would eliminate the persisting wasteful
rivalries and violence.
B. The eleven goals represent the most significant
objectives of the inhabitants of the region, and of
the other countries that have economic and political relations with
the Arab world:
Domestic tranquility is essential to the resolution
of differences and the development of the economies and societies of
the various countries.
Peaceful external relations are needed for economic
development and the reduction of military expenditures.
Preventing outside domination is to ensure that the
development of the region will benefit its inhabitants instead of
outsiders.
Reduction of military expenditures will provide the
funds for economic development.
Increasing religious observance is needed to
counteract trends toward excessive materialism that may result from
prosperity.
Increasing economic development is crucial to
satisfying the unmet human needs of much of the Arab world.
Increasing social development is needed for gaining
political stability and the elevation of the status of women.
Developing water resources is essential to satisfy
the need for a growing population and the industrialization of the
region.
Reliable oil supplies will provide much of the
resources needed for economic development. Further benefits will be
obtained through participation in a growing world economy fueled by
the petroleum energy source.
Assistance to the developing world will be secured
through continuing growth of the world economy made possible by
reversing the arms race.
Reducing terrorism is required to eliminate the
negative image caused by this counter-productive activity.
The table organizes the policy options and goals. You assign each goal
a percentage weight factor based on the perceived importance
of the goal. The total sum of the weight factors should not
exceed 100.
You should also assign a subjective value to each combination of policy
option and goal. For the sake of simplicity only the values of 1 to 4
can be assigned, with 4 being the best value for the goal, and 1 the
worst, with 2 and 3 in between. For example, the rivalries of the
existing political system give a low value of 1 to the
reduction of military expenditures. In contrast, the
peace confederation option would eliminate the
rivalries, and yields a high value of 4 in the reduction of
military expenditures.
To perform the calculation of the assigned values, simply click the
'calculate' button. Each weight factor will be multiplied by the
appropriate value, and the results will be summarized in the bottom line,
to yield a total measurement for the policy option.
Using the methodology, the higher the summarized measurement, the better
the policy option. If the
peace confederation option gains the highest total
result, it means that it achieves most of the objectives of the people
living in the region.
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